Predictions are usually wrong. When we get it right, we get it really right. Our predictions for the music business in 2023 are as follows...
10) Bytedance’s hugely popular “TikTok” application fails to decouple from the Chinese communist party, and is banned in the United States as a result. This negatively impacts influencer marketing juggernauts like Creed Media, Songfluencer, and Flighthouse, as well as the big three.
9) AI generated music (enabled by technology like Supertone) makes landfall in the US through covert releases by Strange Fruits, Firefly Entertainment, and Epidemic Sounds. DSP’s like Spotify and Apple Music will follow suit, and support it through their editorial playlists.
8) The frontline record business continues to die as the catalogue business continues to rise. Consumers no longer want to discover new music, and fewer stars are created as a result. Internally, record labels reduce their reliance on superstars and double down on their catalogue.
7) In response to 100,000 songs being released on DSP’s every day, the labels successfully lobby Spotify and Apple Music to create a dual royalty system. Independent artists are paid less (per stream) than artists signed to traditional record labels. The labels implement this (in the short term) to counteract their declining streamshare.
6) In response to competitors like Apple Music, Spotify will increase its premium subscription price from $9.99 a month to $10.99 a month in the United States. This price increase generates billions for rightsholders and increases Spotify’s net operating margins. Everyone wins.
5) TikTok, under fire from the US government, attempts to launch “Resso”, a Spotify competitor, and fails because they are unable to acquire the requisite licenses from Sony, Warner, and UMG. The music industry learns from their past mistakes and doesn’t repeat them.
4) In an effort to increase security for its users, Spotify rolls out the ability for regular users to implement 2FA on their accounts. This cuts down on streaming fraud and user account hacking. 2FA for regular accounts remains the most “liked” thread on Spotify’s community forums to date.
3) Artists and teams who were unable to build a real music business in web 2.0, will be unable to build a sustainable business in web 3.0. A softening economic climate will create reduced demand for music NFT’s and innovation around smart contracts. The promises of web3 will go unrealized, although successful outliers will exist.
2) Searchable user generated content (specifically user generated playlists) on Spotify and Apple Music will become increasingly more valuable as TikTok loses steam and fails to drive consumption. Internally, labels will allocate budgets to covertly acquire popular user playlists (and playlist companies) given 50–60% of listening on Spotify is solely through “listener” playlists. What’s old becomes new again.
1) Songs will become more important than artists. In the future, a radical new “major” will arise and understand this insight, dethroning Universal Music Group as the largest record label in the world. This new “4th major” will think from first principles, have no artists signed to it, and release music exclusively made by artificial intelligence. It will specialize in no specific genre and its catalogue will consistent of the perfect background music for every moment of your life.
Obviously these are mostly Casamigos inspired "educated guesses" and in no way reflect guaranteed outcomes. That said, based on 2022 trends, ADAM 4 Artists forecasts a 9.89% accuracy rate 😏👍.
Great insightful article. These trends will impact so many of us.